Rockets v Warriors Preview: Defensive Film Study

Welcome back to Tea and Rockets! I started this blog doing defensive film studies and really ramped it up in the bubble, where every game counted for so much. After four and a half years, I'm excited to start covering do or die Houston Rockets games again, and where better to start than their fantastic win over the Warriors two weeks ago, ahead of their trauma-inducing re-re-re-rematch series starting Sunday night.

The Rockets won a lot of plaudits for their defense in that victory back in early April. We know about Amen Thompson's physics-defying defense, but what else was going on as Houston held Golden State to just 96 points? Pop the kettle on, and enjoy the film.

Who does Alperen Sengun guard?

From the first play of the game, guess who Alperen Sengun is guarding. Not a non-shooting big man, but a genuine three-point threat in Moses Moody - a shooting guard who takes 7.4 3s per36 and hits 37.4% of them. But watch the very first play here as Jimmy Tomball Butler attacks the basket. Sengun slides over and commits to a strong contest from the weakside corner, forcing Butler into a tough pass which Moody has to collect below his knees before getting up and shooting. That's not a Butler layup. That's not a Steph Curry 3. And therefore, Houston probably sees it as a win.

So the obvious counter for Golden State is to take Sengun away from the corner and force him to guard the perimeter. Watch below. Curry chases around a Moody screen into the ball at the top of the key, but look how strongly Tari blasts through the screen to stay connected, and then as Curry turns, the video pauses and you see Sengun helping off Moody, Fred helping off of Draymond, and now Curry is cut off by three Houston defenders. Steph makes the pass and Sengun's closeout forces Moody to be a driver and decision maker. Watch again as the video pauses and Buddy Hield cuts baseline under the rim. He's open for a layup, but Moody misses him, and the Rockets are good enough to scramble and rotate to Curry who gets fouled on a non-shooting foul. When Golden State attacks Sengun, its Moody who has to make decisions - another win for Houston.

And again here, Moody comes up to set the screen on Curry, bringing Sengun up. I suddenly have flashbacks to Nene switching on to Curry at the end of game 1 of the 2019 series and getting roasted on the switch. But not this time. This isn't the Mike D'Antoni/Jeff Bzdelik switch everything Rockets. This is Moses Moody trying to set a screen on Amen Thompson, and Amen easily gets around it and stays connected to Steph. Sengun comes up to the level of the screen to show momentarily onto Steph, and together they cut off any pick n pop angle, forcing 6'5 Moody to be a roller. He's not a threat in the short roll, and Steph has to pass out to a covered Jimmy Butler in the corner, and the Rockets just took away their first option.

Enter Gary Payton II

The game changed quickly as the Warriors took out Moody and subbed in one of the smartest offball players in the NBA, Gary Payton II, who immediately punished Sengun and the Rockets.

Watch how he sets the twirl screen for Curry, who gets momentarily free from Amen for the first time all night, and then Sengun is blind to Payton sneaking in behind him for the easy layup.

A couple of minutes later Sengun blitzes Curry on the pick, but now Payton is a threat in the short roll, and takes it to the basket.

And a short while after that Houston gets a basket, but they give up a quick return on the other end in transition because Payton is the first one down the court.

Payton was extremely active, and in just four minutes of play time in the first quarter, ignited a 9-2 run for the Warriors - their best spell of the game. How did Houston react? Well, you could argue Sengun was played off the court. The big man featured for 20 minutes in the first half, but played just 13 in the second, as Ime Udoka opted for either a smaller lineup with Jabari Smith at center, or the jumbo lineup with Sengun and Adams together. Sengun didn't play as the lone center at all when Gary Payton II played in the 2nd half. Considering this, as well as the recent DNP's for Jonathan Kuminga, expect to see a lot more of GP2 this series.

The Triple Big Lineup

I take umbrage with the Adams/Sengun combo being called the 'double big' lineup, because often Jabari Smith is playing at the 3 as well, and standing at 6'11, I think he qualifies as a third big. Jabari was on the court all nine minutes Adams and Sengun played together, and this triple big lineup had an incredible 31.3 net rating in those minutes, with a bone-crushing 63.2 defensive rating.

Watch this inbound play, admittedly with only 5 seconds left on the clock. Payton continues to be a pest and cuts inside under the rim. But who cares? He has Adams and Sengun sitting back in zone, who watch it happen, nonplussed, and Adams swats his shot attempt away as casual as if he were swatting a fly.

And again here, Payton and Buddy Hield force Sengun and Jabari Smith into defending a perimeter pick n roll action. This is not where Sengun wants to be, and Jabari has difficulty getting around screens on smaller players. Payton springs free on the roll and with another lineup on the court, that might be a layup. Instead Steven Adams gobbles up the shot attempt and says thank you very much for another block. Suddenly the prospect of Sengun getting beat isn't so scary when you have the big New Zealand failsafe behind you.

And another play here, look at how Payton is buzzing around the rim, cutting into space that only exists around the watch of three exceptionally tall human beings in Rockets red. The Warriors have little happening, so Payton concedes and backs out to the perimeter. Houston's trio of bigs stay in their position, unbothered. And the 32.6% shooter who has made just 31 attempts from deep all year misses the shot.

As I watched these triple big lineups, I kept seeing how important the corner is to its success. When the strongside corner had only one Warrior in it, life was easy. Watch how Sengun doesn't have to worry about Butler here as the pass is made to Kuminga, who settles for the 3 on a decent close out.

Now watch this play. Both Butler and Podziemski cut from the weakside to the strongside as the Rockets stay in zone. However, Looney is middle, at the FT line, occupying Steven Adams' attention. This is how you attack zone, as now Golden State has a 2v1 advantage on Jabari Smith, and they work the ball to Podz for the 3 attempt.

Podz misses, and perhaps this is why Jabari Smith is the key to this jumbo lineup working, because the gaps the offense creates is smaller and the time the shooter gets on the ball is shorter when the wing defender can chase and recover from a size of 6'11 with that extra wingspan.

Conclusion

This lineup chess match will unfold throughout the series, but what seems guaranteed is Ime Udoka will continue to look for places to hide Sengun and encourage him to rotate as a weakside help defender. His comfort in this role, as well as in the triple big lineups, is helped by what I believe is a fairly underrated ability to closeout and guard a perimeter player in the corner or slot, where the sideline and baseline count as extra defenders. If the Warriors look to use Moses Moody more with Sengun on him, the Rockets will be glad of the extra possessions without Steph Curry handling the ball. If they move away from their motion offense and run more pick n roll, the Rockets might be the best team in the NBA at fighting through screens, and asking Moses Moody to playmake from the short roll seems a lot to ask. If they counter with more Gary Payton II minutes, expect to see the triple big lineup utilised more in answer. Houston can burn more Adams/Sengun minutes and break their staggered rotation by equipping Jabari and even Tari Eason more at center, so there is more gold to mine here from that exceptionally productive lineup.

Can they do this with Steph playing 42 minutes a night, rather than the 32 he played in this regular season game? We will see. Amen only played 29, and don't forget Fred VanVleet was the defender getting similar credit in the 2019 finals as Toronto equipped a box-and-one defense, albeit against an injury depleted Warriors team. Look out for the triple-big/double-small lineup, with Fred and Aaron Holiday zipping around and chasing shooters. I'm the foremost believer in 'Aaron Holiday is actually good in spot minutes against elite guards' - feel free to join me on this island as the series progresses.

Of course, putting Sengun on a perimeter player can lead to mismatches elsewhere. And as a present for making it to the end, here's a cut of plays where the Warriors attempted to attack Fred VanVleet in the post with Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler.

From James Harden, to Chris Paul, to Fred VanVleet...the Rockets continue to dare you to attack their smaller players in the post if you truly think it's an exploit:

And to sign off, in the immortal words of Tari Eason...

I don't like the Warriors.